I tend to be a glass half empty type of guy. I admit it. I suppose I’d rather be pleasantly surprised, as I have been of late concerning most things Obama, than dropped off that cliff of disappointment again and again. Damn those rocks at the bottom can be hard.
Here are some observations regarding the Religious Right and the next four years; if not eight…
1. “With an Obama Administration and a Democratic majority in Congress, the Religious Right will be reinvigorated, joining with right-wing Republicans in a backlash that will dwarf their attacks during the Clinton era. The Christian Patriot militia movement will return and along with it, right-wing religiously motivated domestic terrorism. ”
2. “We can also reasonably expect a fresh round of ballot initiatives on the usual subjects. And just as the Democratic Party seeks to downplay issues related to LGBT civil rights — especially marriage equality, the issue will likely blow up in their faces as the religious right continues to drive the issue.”
3. ” I do not believe an Obama victory would be a crippling blow to the Religious Right. These organizations have been declared dead before, yet they always bounce back. The unpleasant truth is, the Religious Right is probably a permanent fixture in American politics. Like any social/political movement, it will see victories and defeats at the polls. No one electoral loss will spell its doom.”
4. “Throughout the campaign, the “abortion as black genocide” argument has grown louder as a concerted attack on Obama’s pro-choice positions. Conservative black Christian leaders, as well as flagship Christian right activist groups such as Family Research Council, will continue to use Obama’s position to highlight their latest effort to appropriate the language and legacy of women’s and civil rights in service of their goals.”
5. “The temptation under Obama will be to declare the Christian Right dead, again; a premature announcement mainstream media has made a dozen times over the decades, ever since the Scopes Monkey Trial of 1925.”
These observers of the Religious Right were asked before election day what they thought might happen. Take them as worse case scenarios, if nothing else. I believe they are dead on, but it’s not as if I haven’t been wrong before.
But I doubt we can afford to under estimate them.
They will attempt to make Obama dance, and he is unable, or unwilling, I fear the consequences. I doubt he: or anyone, will be able to dance well enough for them… except someone willing to be their female dog, or abused prison sex mate. Let’s hope Barcak’s as talented as Fred Astaire, or at least Marty McFly.
I share your caution, Ken, and don’t expect Obama to be any more than a middle-left president which, after 8 years of Bush is practically Noam Chimsky, but I have to respond to the points you posted:
1. The Christopublicans have been shrinking in number since their high point in the late ’80s. The Christian Coalition is a PO Box these days and the Moral Majority is practically non-existent. Oral Roberts and Falwell are dead, and Robertson and Dobson each have one foot on a banana peel. The new generation of TV preachers — the Joel Osteens and the Rich Warrens — are conservative, but not as doctrinaire as the Old Guard. They tend to push more of a Happy Face Christianity than Fire and Brimstone, and they have more of a social conscience.
2. It’s now emerging that some of the voters in CA misunderstood the anti-gay marriage Prop 8 referendum — they thought a ‘yes’ meant they were voting to legalize gay marriage and in all of the states that had these initiatives last election the presidential race overshadowed everything else on the ballot. You notice the righites are desperately fighting a revote in CA — they know they can’t pull off the same trick twice.
3. Sure, the Crazy Religious Kooks will be with us always, as they have been since the founding of the country, but their numbers and involvement will decline. If they hang on to the GOP, the party be reduced to a permanent minority status representing the sparsely-populated rural areas of the south, midwest and west. Many Republicans recognize this and it scares the hell out of them. I think the Money People who really own the GOP will step in and tamp down further CRK influence — they have already bought-off most of the major players. (Ralph Reed, Palin, etc.)
4. They’ll try and fail. Blacks are not likely to be swayed by this argument and the white minority who buys it already voted against Obama.
5. I doubt Obama would ever publicly ‘announce’ the death of the Christian Right — that’s not his style — and, in fact, from the time of the Scopes Trial until Reagan, the Crazy Christopublicans have had little influence on US politics, except in some local elections.
I think we should be cautious and skeptical, but not fearful and prone to overinflate the opposition — they can do that themselves.
I’m a Chomsky fan. I even did well in Transformational Grammar; the name a bit of a misnomer. I agree with your analysis and comparison.
1. This ebb and flow has been happening throughout history. At their high points I think we tend to over estimate, when low I think we tend to dismiss them too easily.
2. Old ploy. A quick trip out of office, and maybe to jail for most obvious examples, should be offered for phrasing any prop “No,” for “Yes,” “Yes,” for “No.”
3. And rise, and decline, and rise, and…
4. It won’t work on a large scale, but in individual churches where the preacher preaches and the congregant nods and obeys… it will. There is that faction within the Black church community as a whole of congregation/preacher even headquarters of any given faith, relationships. Mostly amongst the most fundamental, though even as a UU I have had to spout more than once, “Who appointed Boston ‘God?'”
Only to be answered by, “But Boston said…” Our minister thought questioning his background, and whether he should remain minister, was lawyer time. So it certainly isn’t limited to any faith or race.
5. I doubt that too, and it would be like handing an apple orchard to Satan, or a Fort Knox quantity of kryptonite to Lex Luther. But I think their greatest influence has been when we either or over estimate them: especially how corrupt and devious they can be. You probably read my account I have related many times of the Conservative Party just barely outside of NYC: Rockland County. The head of our ticket and party took their money and, when he wouldn’t play ball with them on all and every/any issue, suddenly kiddie porn was found in his trunk; discovered right after his first and only refusal by “anonymous tip.”
“Anonymous” my colonoscopy portal.
As you mentioned to begin with, skepticism is called for.
We agree.