Palestinian terrorists use anti-tank bombs dropped from drones to destroy an Israeli Merkava 4 tank (photo: HAMAS terrorist group)

Written by Malcolm Nance

Without any question, the deepest failure is by Israel’s clandestine service, the Mossad, AMAN, the Israeli military intelligence directorate, and Shin Bet, Israel’s primary internal intelligence agency.  To a limited extent, it is also a pretty bad failure of Egypt’s Mukhabarat A’min, the General Intelligence Directorate. Each county supposedly runs extensive human intelligence (HUMINT) networks in Gaza.

Israel has full technological dominance on signals intelligence (SIGINT) in Gaza and the West Bank but this is generally defeated by Omerta-like confidentiality the Palestinians have perfected.

Technically, HAMAS has mastered the art of the closed-lipped, closed-loop terrorist cell. Members are intensely vetted, are very well-known to each other personally, and coordinate face-to-face only. I have seen how the Israeli army and Egyptian and Jordanian intelligence agencies operate in the digital spectrum, but so has HAMAS. This is likely why HAMAS essentially went analog. It is very difficult to infiltrate the tight networks of a group like Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, or Hezbollah in Lebanon without deep human intelligence. Because their communications security requires one to be in the room where activities are planned.

Unfortunately, Israel often gets its Human Intelligence information through physical and psychological coercion of individuals Shin Bet captures or detains at checkpoints in hopes of turning them into Palestinian informants.  Hamas quickly became aware of who was approached and what information Israel wanted through relatives or other captives.  Such informants can be turned by HAMAS counterintelligence and made into perfect disinformation conduits.  Their tapped phones can be used for scripted disinformation or even deception. The probability that these conduits have may deceived Israel into not believing a major attack was imminent is very high.

Egypt controls commerce from the west into Gaza, and its networks are susceptible to ideological co-option.  Many Egyptians support and openly admire how the Palestinians resist Israel. The Egyptian-Gaza frontier has proved to be an exceptionally porous border for Iranian weapons transshipment. Smuggling of weapons, equipment, and other goods is ridiculously commonplace using well-known smuggler tunnels between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. The underground Gazan piracy world is sustained by the money that they generate. The needs of two million people being blockaded keep the dozens of tunnels operating nearly nonstop. No one on the Egyptian side generally asks questions. The questions that are asked by the Egyptians which might generate actionable intelligence, have to go through a political process that may or may not be used to inform Israel.  It does not help that the Egyptians are dealing with their own ISIS insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula.

When the attacks started the US Army launched two MC-12S HURON intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) aircraft from Jordan for collection missions over the Gulf of Aqaba. These small aircraft are supplementing other US intelligence assets in the region to understand what is happening.  However, Washington mainly relies on intelligence sharing with Israel, Jordan, and Egypt for the most detailed information about HAMAS activities.

Oh, on the other hand, Palestinian intelligence appears to be exceptionally accurate. Their ability to seize the Nahal Oz army base with dozens of vehicles and hundreds of weapons revealed that they knew precisely where to enter the fences. Other attacks on camera-operated surveillance points with automatic machine guns on remote turrets were destroyed by drone-dropping bombs. It’s quite possible Hamas had some form of strategic intelligence support from Iran, but it is most likely the eyes and ears of Palestinians, who observed these checkpoints and developed an excellent estimation of his rally force and behaviors on a holiday Sabbath that led to their success. Needless to say, Hamas won’t enjoy the benefits of their labors much longer. Israel will not only come down with an iron fist but will start adapting to this attack with surprises of their own.

Unfortunately, Gaza resembles little more than a 2 million-person open-air prison and people in these conditions literally have nothing to lose. If the army enters Gaza they may put up a level of resistance that will leave Israelis wondering when it will all end.

Again, this is an Israeli failure on a massive level and reveals that their oppression of the Palestinian National Authority in the West Bank likely closed intelligence-sharing loops that could have provided indicators of a possible secret plan by HAMAS.  Israel’s sharp veering to the right, backing settlers to seize Palestinian lands extralegally, and indiscriminate killing of thousands of civilians every time there is an uprising have hardened anyone in the Palestinian community to ever breach the wall of silence.  Whatever Mossad considered good intelligence two days ago was deceived by HAMAS’s skill at operational security. or their hubris which relied on a reputation that is now tarnished.